SignalFrogMarket timing is the attempt to enter cheaply and exit before the decline. The idea is intuitive: if prices move, there must be better and worse moments. There are — they simply cannot be identified in advance, only in hindsight.
Why waiting rarely helps
Equity markets rise more often than they fall over long periods. Waiting means being uninvested in a market whose basic direction points up. The cost of waiting therefore accrues while the hoped-for advantage stays uncertain.
Studies comparing "all at once" with "spread over months" reach the same result repeatedly: investing immediately came out ahead in the majority of periods. Not always — just more often.
The psychological catch
Phasing in still has value, but a different one from the claimed one. It does not improve expected return, it improves the probability that you stay invested. Invest everything on one day and sit twelve percent down three weeks later, and you are more likely to leave again.
What a risk signal does here — and what it does not
It does not tell you when to buy. No serious model does. It tells you what kind of environment you are currently in — whether conditions are calm or strained.
That is a placement, not a trigger. The difference matters: a placement helps with the question of how much risk you want to carry right now. A trigger tempts you into exactly the timing that statistically does not work.