Market Signals & Early Indicators

• Credit Spreads — the Price of Distrust

  Why the yield premium on risky bonds reacts before the equity market, what a widening indicates and how to read spreads alongside the other signals.

• Volatility and the VIX

  What the fear index measures, why low readings deceive rather than signal safety, and how to place a VIX level next to the other indicators.

• The Yield Curve as an Early Indicator

  What inversion means, how good the track record as a recession signal really is and why the curve on its own still is not a forecast.