Market Signals & Early Indicators

• Credit Spreads — the Price of Distrust

  Why the yield premium on risky bonds often reacts before the equity market, and what a widening really indicates.

• Volatility and the VIX

  What the fear index actually measures, why a low reading does not mean safety, and how to place it.

• The Yield Curve as an Early Indicator

  Why an inverted curve counts among the most reliable recession signals — and why it still is not a forecast.