Understanding SignalFrog

How to Read the Signal

By Stefan Domeyer·Diplom-Kaufmann (Business Administration) · Founder of SignalFrog·

A risk signal is only as useful as the question you read it with. Three questions take you further than a glance at today's value.

1. Has the state changed?

The number is not what counts; the transition is. A score sitting at 38 for weeks contains no new information. A jump from 38 to 46 — from warm to hot — does.

2. Where does the change come from?

A rise from the political layer means something different from one out of the macro layer. Political events often fade quickly; macro shifts act across quarters. The Premium version shows the dominant channel for exactly this reason.

3. Does this change anything about my situation?

The most important and least asked question. For someone who need not withdraw anything for ten years, a hot environment changes little. For someone needing a large sum in eighteen months, it changes a lot.

The signal describes the market. Whether anything follows from it depends on your time horizon, not on the score.

A sensible rhythm

Looking once a day is enough and takes half a minute. You will almost never need to act — the state changes rarely. That is precisely the purpose: attention should sit where something changes, not where numbers appear daily.

Background reading