SignalFrogThe BoilingFrog score condenses the state of the market environment into a number between 0 and 100. The higher it is, the more strained the conditions.
What it is built from
Four layers with fixed weights, plus three overlays:
- Macro, 35 percent — central bank balance sheet, rates, real rates, the role of the dollar
- Politics, 25 percent — events from 22 news sources, weighted by severity
- Markets, 25 percent — volatility, credit spreads, equity stress
- Energy, 15 percent — oil, gas, power transmission
The weights are not guessed but calibrated and published. Anyone wanting to recompute finds the formula and thresholds on the methodology page.
What the number expresses
It is a description of state, not a forecast. A score of 55 says conditions are currently strained — it does not say something will happen next week.
The distinction sounds academic but is the most important point when reading it. A forecast answers "what is coming". A description of state answers "where do we stand right now". Only the second can be derived seriously from data.
Why a single number
Because nobody reads forty individual values daily. Condensing costs information; that is the price. This is why the score is never shown alone: the Premium version shows which of the four layers is currently driving it — and with it the information the condensation loses.